2266 Shoshone Cir · Danville, CA 94526

$1,024,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Townhouse public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1984 3,150 sqft lot $616/sqft · 17% below area Est $1237k · 17% under $475/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ONE LEVEL LUXURY DUET IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH SPACIOUS YARD ROOM FOR LAWN BUT EASY CARE. GORGEOUS UPDATED,LIGHT&OPEN.DECORATOR

Key facts

• $475 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: CROW CANYON HEIGHTS; Monthly HOA fee (includes reserves, insurance, management fee, hazard insurance, common area maintenance, landscape maintenance); HOA amenities include greenbelt and pool; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; number limit applies); HOA transfer fees paid by buyer

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 covered/garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Built in 1984; Raised foundation
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard with landscaped front and back; Deck; Fenced yard with wood fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms including a primary bedroom suite
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower, tub, tub with jets and window; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub, tub and window
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Formal dining room; Breakfast nook and breakfast bar; Updated kitchen with solid surface counters; Washer and dryer in a laundry room; Main entry; Living room with fireplace; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with dryer; Washer listed among appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $1.02M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-44k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (63.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (58.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $377k (63.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 1.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in CA, #3,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.01M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $499k; list at $1.02M implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $377,180 (63.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.33%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 20.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,237,442
• List price: $1,024,800
• Delta: -17.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1988 Saint George Rd	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (-3%)	4mo	$1,200,000	$747	82
1937 W Rancho Verde Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-5%)	1mo	$1,130,000	$714	79
1942 Rancho Verde Cir E	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-8%)	1mo	$1,080,000	$702	77
1864 Saint George Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-7%)	1mo	$1,200,000	$773	76
607 Silver Lake Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,619 (-3%)	1mo	$1,300,000	$803	71
2131 Myrtle Beach Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-7%)	2mo	$1,125,000	$724	62
1844 Saint George Rd	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-10%)	7mo	$1,180,000	$784	59
537 Rolling Hills Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-14%)	0mo	$1,110,000	$773	58
644 Doral Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-7%)	7mo	$1,325,000	$855	54
586 Cambrian Way	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (-12%)	9mo	$1,385,000	$949	52
531 Silver Lake Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-13%)	0mo	$1,050,000	$725	51
631 Silver Lake Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-14%)	7mo	$1,068,888	$744	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.67% appreciation · 5.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-218,586
• Equity at exit: $332,585

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-266,332
• Equity at exit: $428,920

Cash invested: $286,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94526

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 20.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,374
• Tax from tax record: −$746 /mo · $8,953/yr
• Insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$475
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-3,666

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,889

Max offer price $377,180

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $256,200
• Closing costs: $30,744
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3081 Fostoria Cir Danville, CA	3.0	2.0	1233	$3,400	$2.76	18d	1	0.26mi
332 Norris Canyon Ter San Ramon, CA	2.0	2.0	1150	$3,325	$2.89	5d	1	0.61mi
318 Norris Canyon Ter San Ramon, CA	2.0	2.0	1070	$3,300	$3.08	5d	1	0.63mi
1705 Cinnabar Ct San Ramon, CA	3.0	4.0	1716	$4,500	$2.62	43d	1	0.77mi
3873 Crow Canyon Rd San Ramon, CA	2.0	2.0	1107	$3,250	$2.94	43d	1	0.83mi
3056 Lakemont Dr San Ramon, CA	3.0	2.0	1932	$4,800	$2.48	24d	1	0.91mi
505 Mission Pl Danville, CA	3.0	2.0	1334	$3,800	$2.85	2d	1	0.96mi
340 Borica Dr Danville, CA	4.0	2.0	1775	$4,800	$2.70	43d	1	1.04mi
1830 Mockingbird Pl Danville, CA	3.0	2.5	1705	$4,700	$2.76	2d	1	1.05mi
453 Carillo Ct San Ramon, CA	3.0	1.5	1200	$3,350	$2.79	14d	1	1.11mi
560 La Copita Ct San Ramon, CA	3.0	1.5	1200	$3,300	$2.75	43d	1	1.16mi
1700 Promontory Ter San Ramon, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$4,417	$4.63	1d	15	1.16mi
211 Skyline Dr San Ramon, CA	3.0	3.0	1317	$3,850	$2.92	43d	1	1.18mi
57 Summer Hill Ct Danville, CA	3.0	3.0	1459	$4,800	$3.29	1d	1	1.20mi
5022 Lakeview Dr #101 San Ramon, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$3,900	$2.98	5d	1	1.22mi
1023 Vista Pointe Cir San Ramon, CA	4.0	2.5	2044	$4,600	$2.25	5d	1	1.23mi
1023 Vista Pointe Cir San Ramon, CA	4.0	2.5	2044	$4,600	$2.25	1d	1	1.23mi
1319 Strawberry Ct Danville, CA	3.0	3.0	1606	$4,500	$2.80	1d	1	1.26mi
910 Vista Pointe Dr San Ramon, CA	3.0	2.5	1727	$4,500	$2.61	24d	1	1.30mi
3300 Promontory Way San Ramon, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$3,105	$3.05	1d	1	1.34mi
1102 Vista Pointe Cir San Ramon, CA	3.0	2.5	1471	$4,100	$2.79	5d	1	1.39mi
2455 Talavera Dr San Ramon, CA	4.0	2.5	1704	$5,000	$2.93	43d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $475 · $5,700/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $1,024,800 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,024,800 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    listed $1,024,800 Active 786-char remark
11. 2026-05-13
    historical $1,024,800 786-char remark
12. 2002-08-06
    historical
13. 2002-07-15
    soldstatus $499,000

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    ONE LEVEL LUXURY DUET IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH SPACIOUS YARD ROOM FOR LAWN BUT EASY CARE. GORGEOUS UPDATED,LIGHT&OPEN.DECORATOR

14. 2002-07-12
    soldstatus $499,000
15. 2002-06-30
    historical

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    ONE LEVEL LUXURY DUET IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH SPACIOUS YARD ROOM FOR LAWN BUT EASY CARE. GORGEOUS UPDATED,LIGHT&OPEN.DECORATOR

16. 2002-05-15
    listed $499,950

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    ONE LEVEL LUXURY DUET IN GATED COMMUNITY WITH SPACIOUS YARD ROOM FOR LAWN BUT EASY CARE. GORGEOUS UPDATED,LIGHT&OPEN.DECORATOR

17. 1992-09-01
    soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,953 · $746/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,953 · $746/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$57,405
• − Property taxes: −$8,953
• − Insurance: −$5,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,078
• − Management: −$4,078
• − HOA: −$5,700
• − Depreciation: −$29,812
• Taxable loss: −$64,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15,401
• After-tax cash flow: $-28,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Ramon Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0635130
• Math proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $138,331
• Composite: 76.08/100
• National rank: #216
• State rank: #28 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #3007

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 59,639
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,584
• Household income: $225,097
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 440.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 16% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Current HPI: 338.4779
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.72%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+309.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-18 Listed $1,024,800 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $1,024,800 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-08-06 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-07-15 Sold (MLS) $499,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $499,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-30 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-05-15 Listed $499,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,953 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.