431 Andrew Dr

Valparaiso, FL 32580

$315,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$401
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-403/mo
• Annual: $-4,837/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.48%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#278 in FL, #4,319 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $315k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Valparaiso — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.