431 Andrew Dr · Valparaiso, FL 32580

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1959 0.50 ac lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $323k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

Key facts

• Flat half-acre lot
• Mature oak trees
• Sun-room

Tags

• FLAT HALF-ACRE LOT
• MATURE OAK TREES
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• BONUS ENCLOSED GARAGE
• SUN-ROOM
• ATTACHED WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Valparaiso — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#278 in FL, #4,319 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $315k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,830 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.48%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,031
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -2.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 Andrew Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-1%)	5mo	$337,000	$203	90
430 Edge Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,732 (+3%)	1mo	$329,900	$190	65
106 Penny Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-4%)	10mo	$384,900	$241	65
112 Penny Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-4%)	11mo	$384,900	$241	63
400 Glendale Ave	0.50mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,668 (-0%)	10mo	$280,000	$168	60
396 Andrew Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-15%)	13mo	$240,000	$168	58
100 Penny Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-4%)	20mo	$377,500	$236	57
353 Chicago Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+15%)	7mo	$499,900	$260	41
333 Washington Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-14%)	15mo	$200,000	$139	40
346 Edge Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,850 (+10%)	11mo	$380,000	$205	38
817 Spencer Pl	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,912 (+14%)	6mo	$435,000	$228	34
414 Davenport Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (+15%)	19mo	$410,000	$213	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $11,362
• Equity at exit: $140,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $77,493
• Equity at exit: $216,140

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32580

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,236/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,598

Max offer price $243,799

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
475 Andrew Dr Valparaiso, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	13d	1	0.19mi
369 Lincoln Ave Valparaiso, FL	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,595	$1.46	43d	1	0.25mi
532 Valparaiso Pkwy Valparaiso, FL	2.0	1.5	1203	$1,900	$1.58	43d	1	0.33mi
9 Praiseworthy Dr Valparaiso, FL	3.0	2.5	1549	$2,250	$1.45	44d	1	0.43mi
431 Edge Ave Valparaiso, FL	4.0	1.5	1440	$2,000	$1.39	43d	1	0.58mi
412 Detroit Ave Valparaiso, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,200	$1.81	13d	1	0.71mi
236 Chicago Ave Valparaiso, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$2,500	$1.32	13d	1	0.83mi
262 Mississippi Ave Valparaiso, FL	3.0	2.0	2114	$2,500	$1.18	43d	1	1.33mi
211 Evans St Unit F Niceville, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	1.34mi
561 Bayshore Dr Unit 1 Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	43d	1	1.38mi
409 Nathey Ave Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1646	$2,150	$1.31	20d	1	1.45mi
42 Avery Dr Valparaiso, FL	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,150	$1.44	20d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $315,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

4. 2026-04-28
   price $315,000 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

5. 2026-04-22
   price $325,000 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

6. 2026-04-18
   price $319,900 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

7. 2026-03-25
   price $329,900 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

8. 2026-03-03
   price $339,900 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

9. 2026-02-03
   listed $349,900 Active 969-char remark

   Show marketing remark (969 chars)

   1/2 acre lot shaded by gorgeous mature oak trees, and backing up to military land for privacy, this updated single-family 3/2 home gives space! Perfectly positioned near military bases and sought-after A+ schools, making everyday life beautiful. Versatile spaces such as indoor laundry, bonus enclosed garage (Can easily be converted back to garage!), sun-room and attached workshop are not included in square footage, making this home big on space! Home has been refreshed with neutral flooring, no carpet! Scraped ceilings, no popcorn! Fresh paint, granite counters, and updated baths. Out back, the exterior deck invites gatherings under the trees, while the yard building provides room for projects and storage Gas hookups in the home for versatility. metal roof, newer water heater, newer appliances, full Electrical re-wire, lawn pump and NO HOA, bring your boat or RV and make it your own. Seller will add garage door back prior to closing with acceptable offer.

10. 2023-10-18
    historical $2,200
11. 2023-10-15
    listed $2,200
12. 2018-06-11
    soldstatus $130,000
13. 2018-05-31
    soldstatus $130,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    HOME BEING SOLD AS IS, NEEDS WORK HOWEVER HAS GOOD BONES. METAL ROOF, 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS AND A LARGE LOT. WITH SOME WORK THIS IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

14. 2018-05-31
    soldstatus $130,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    HOME BEING SOLD AS IS, NEEDS WORK HOWEVER HAS GOOD BONES. METAL ROOF, 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS AND A LARGE LOT. WITH SOME WORK THIS IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

15. 2018-04-23
    listed $140,000 158-char remark

    Show marketing remark (158 chars)

    HOME BEING SOLD AS IS, NEEDS WORK HOWEVER HAS GOOD BONES. METAL ROOF, 3 BEDROOMS AND 2 FULL BATHS AND A LARGE LOT. WITH SOME WORK THIS IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY.

16. 1978-02-01
    soldstatus $35,000
17. 1977-01-01
    soldstatus $15,737

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,236 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,236
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,537
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valparaiso

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #4319

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valparaiso, FL
• City population: 4,117
• Population (ZIP): 4,117

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Korean 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Current HPI: 266.6313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1901.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $315,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $325,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $319,900 ECAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $329,900 ECAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $339,900 ECAR
• 2026-02-03 Listed $349,900 ECAR
• 2023-10-18 Rental Removed $2,200 TURBOTENANT
• 2023-10-15 Listed for Rent $2,200 TURBOTENANT
• 2018-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-31 Sold (MLS) $130,000 NAMLS
• 2018-05-31 Sold (MLS) $130,000 ECAR
• 2018-04-23 Listed $140,000 NAMLS
• 1978-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1977-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,737 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,236 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.