3407 E Haven Rd

Brighton, VT 05846

$189,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,621/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $5/mo
• Annual: $61/yr
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($61/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Brighton Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #123 of 192 statewide, top 66%, 135 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.