2014 Chestnut St

Hannibal, MO 63401

$29,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,039 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 283 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $612/mo
• Annual: $7,344/yr
• Cap rate: 30.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.72%
• DSCR: 4.90
• 1% rule: 3.42%
• Cash to close: $8,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#81 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, employment D.
• Hannibal 60 (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #142 of 324 in MO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 3.4% in Hannibal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.