2014 Chestnut St · Hannibal, MO 63401

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,039 sqft · Other public records · 283 Days on market

Built 1900 4,617 sqft lot $29/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 4,617 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 282 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 3.4% in Hannibal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#81 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, employment D.
• Hannibal 60 (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #142 of 324 in MO (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $26,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.72%
• DSCR: 4.90
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,678
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -54.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $34,144
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.55×
• Total profit: $79,962
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63401

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,023 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $248

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 281 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 280 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 273 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,900 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    status Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

15. 2026-04-15
    price $29,900 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

16. 2026-04-04
    historical Active Under Contract 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

17. 2026-03-06
    price $45,000 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

18. 2025-12-03
    price $50,000 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

19. 2025-10-08
    price $57,500 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

20. 2025-09-08
    listed $64,900 Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Nestled at 2014 Chestnut St, this bungalow presents an opportunity to own a piece of history. Built in 1900, this home awaits its next chapter. Bring your ideas and come make this property your next home or investment opportunity! Property is being sold as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$982
• − Management: −$982
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $7,295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,751
• After-tax cash flow: $5,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hannibal 60
• NCES district ID: 2913650
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,349
• Composite: 34.39/100
• National rank: #5208
• State rank: #142 of 324 in MO

Livability — Hannibal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #5358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hannibal, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,125

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,640 people
• By 2030: 28,432 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 27,597 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 26,203 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 21,931 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 15,765 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.1% · R 76.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+32.0 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.01%
• Current HPI: 189.6907
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-53.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $57,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Listed $64,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.