2904 New Copeland Rd

Tyler, TX 75701

$229,750F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,355 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 195 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,689/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,205
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,791/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $64,330

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woods El (math 54% / reading 51%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 756 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tyler ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?