29 State Highway 52

Erie, CO 80516

$124,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,101/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $678/mo
• Annual: $8,136/yr
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.76%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.69%
• Cash to close: $34,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#46 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erie Elementary School (math 44% / reading 62%, grade C, #168 of 966 statewide, top 18%, 390 students, 19% FRL); Erie Middle School (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D+, #52 of 270 statewide, top 19%, 731 students, 14% FRL); Erie High School (math 48% / reading 71%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 1,754 students, 11% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.9% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($169k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.