884 W Holly St

Fayetteville, AR 72703

$3,000,000F

None bd · None ba · 8,064 sqft · Built 1993 · Townhouse · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,475/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,732
• Tax + insurance: −$2,901
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $-17,468/mo
• Annual: $-209,616/yr
• Cap rate: -0.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.95%
• DSCR: -0.11
• 1% rule: 0.05%
• Cash to close: $840,000

Investor read

• This is a townhouse listed at $3.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17k ($-210k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (94.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (95.1% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (95.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#3 in AR, #871 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
• Fayetteville School District (urban): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 309 active listings in the ZIP; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 285614% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $760k; list at $3.00M implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.7% vs local median 3.5% in Fayetteville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 95% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.