30518 Rodeo Rd

Potter Valley, CA 95469

$199,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 388 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,651/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$53
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-215/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-215/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.0% below list).
• It's been on market 388 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $629 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,253 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Upper Lake Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 378 students, 85% FRL); Upper Lake Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #388 of 498 statewide, top 80%, 178 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 388 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?