30518 Rodeo Rd · Potter Valley, CA 95469

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 387 Days on market

Built 1989 0.76 ac lot Est $235k · 15% under $53/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Listing Video: https://youtu. be/yAB-sIDtUTo Located in the gated community of Lake Pillsbury Ranch, this chalet-style cabin sits on a large lot surrounded by natural beauty. The home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1,226 sq ft of living space, a detached 2-car garage, and a large deck perfect for entertaining or enjoying peaceful mornings in the forest. It's fully furnished and equipped for off-grid living with a generator, propane tank, and satellite setup. Just minutes from Lake Pillsbury, this property offers access to a variety of outdoor activities including boating, fishing, swimming, kayaking, paddleboarding, hiking, mountain biking, birdwatching, and hunting. The area is also ho

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large deck
• Propane tank

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LEVEL LOT
• LARGE DECK
• OFF-GRID LIVING
• GENERATOR
• PROPANE TANK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of an association (Lake Pillsbury Ranch); Monthly HOA fee ($53) covering common areas, management and road; Association amenities include barbecue, greenbelt, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Detached side-by-side garage; 4 parking spaces total; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Off-grid utilities; Septic system; Generator power
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 2 stories; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Uncovered deck; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry closet; Tile counters; Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (located on main level and upper level)
• Flooring: Marble; Parquet; Simulated wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Wood-burning stove / fireplace; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No in-home laundry (none listed); Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-215/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,253 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Upper Lake Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 378 students, 85% FRL); Upper Lake Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #388 of 498 statewide, top 80%, 178 students, 82% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $629 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 387 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,141 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 387 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,392
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4291 Forest Hill Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-2%)	3mo	$230,000	$192	75
30581 Polo Field Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+10%)	12mo	$171,500	$127	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,994
• Equity at exit: $60,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $24,537
• Equity at exit: $75,841

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95469

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,716/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $195,834

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $38	+0% $-18	+5% $-74	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-83	+0% $-18	+5% $47	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $33	base $-18	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 387 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 385 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 384 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 383 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 382 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 381 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 379 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 378 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 375 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 374 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 373 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 369 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 368 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 367 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 366 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 365 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    price $199,000
18. 2025-08-25
    price $209,000
19. 2025-05-31
    listed $220,000 Active
20. 2023-01-16
    status Active
21. 2022-12-08
    historical Contingent (Show)
22. 2022-09-12
    price $225,000
23. 2022-07-08
    price $237,500
24. 2022-03-10
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,716 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,716 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 46 unhealthy d/yr today · 49 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,716
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Lake Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601442
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,872
• Composite: 20.24/100
• National rank: #8624
• State rank: #433 of 517 in CA

Livability — Potter Valley

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1253
• US rank: #26367

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,503

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 20% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Italian 8% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Current HPI: 124.9312
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $199,000 BAREIS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $209,000 BAREIS
• 2025-05-31 Listed $220,000 BAREIS
• 2023-01-16 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2022-12-08 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $225,000 BAREIS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $237,500 BAREIS
• 2022-03-10 Listed $250,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,716 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.