70 Talmage Farm Ln

Springs, NY 11937

$1,795,000B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,200 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,145/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax + insurance: −$1,887
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,860
• Net cashflow: $6,985/mo
• Annual: $83,815/yr
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $502,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($84k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.79M).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.77M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $998k; list at $1.79M implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $23,145/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.