70 Talmage Farm Ln · Springs, NY 11937

$1,795,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2001 0.87 ac lot Est $3200k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Find your forever home in the Hamptons, moments from waterfront restaurants, marinas, and bay beaches. On . 87 +/- acre, this traditional home offers 3,200 +/- sq. ft. of living space across two finished levels, including 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths, a first-floor den, a home office, and two fireplaces-plus a pool, a screened-in gazebo and a secondary structure that may have potential to be a pool house. A double-height entry foyer with a chandelier sets a gracious tone, with expert millwork and bright, inviting interior spaces ready for entertaining and everyday living. The dedicated dining room is positioned just off the eat-in kitchen with stainless appliances, and two sets of sliding glass

Key facts

• Potential pool house
• First floor den
• Home office

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR DEN
• HOME OFFICE
• TWO FIREPLACES
• SCREENED IN GAZEBO
• POTENTIAL POOL HOUSE
• DOUBLE HEIGHT ENTRY FOYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($84k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.79M).
• Recommended offer: $1.77M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#809 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Springs Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #239 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,148/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $998k; list at $1.79M implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,768,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.68%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $3,200,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
939 Springs Fireplace Rd	0.42mi	4/3.5	3,400 (+6%)	9mo	$3,400,000	$1,000	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $276,125
• Equity at exit: $267,640

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $1,368,878
• Equity at exit: $155,199

Cash invested: $502,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax from tax record: −$1,139 /mo · $13,666/yr
• Insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,861
• Net cashflow: $6,987

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,304

Max offer price $1,795,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,003	-5% $7,495	+0% $6,987	+5% $6,479	+10% $5,971
Rent	-10% $5,158	-5% $6,072	+0% $6,987	+5% $7,901	+10% $8,815
Rate	-1.0pp $7,891	-0.5pp $7,443	base $6,987	+0.5pp $6,522	+1.0pp $6,048

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $448,750
• Closing costs: $53,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1039 Springs Fireplace Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$85,000	$34.00	44d	1	0.83mi
83 Rutland Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2500	$20,000	$8.00	44d	1	0.96mi
63 Isle of Wight Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2400	$13,000	$5.42	44d	1	1.05mi
104 Waterhole Rd East Hampton, NY	4.0	2.5	2500	$65,000	$26.00	25d	1	1.07mi
89 Isle of Wight Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2600	$6,000	$2.31	19d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-08-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-23
   listed $1,795,000 Active
3. 2013-06-12
   soldstatus $998,000
4. 2008-11-05
   soldstatus $1,420,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,666 · $1,139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,001 · $1,833/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,335/yr (+$695/mo · 61.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $277,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,548
• − Property taxes: −$13,666
• − Insurance: −$8,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,222
• − Management: −$22,222
• − Depreciation: −$52,218
• Taxable income: $57,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,901
• After-tax cash flow: $69,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springs Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $75,413
• Composite: 51.42/100
• National rank: #1728
• State rank: #239 of 590 in NY

Livability — Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #15666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springs, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+26.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $998,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $1,420,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,666 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.