4959 E Ironwood Cir

Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$115,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 366 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $786/mo
• Annual: $9,434/yr
• Cap rate: 14.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.30%
• DSCR: 2.30
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huachuca Mountain Elementary School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D-, #334 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 416 students, 34% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.