4959 E Ironwood Cir · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1971 7,918 sqft lot $89/sqft · 27% below area Est $158k · 27% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 2 Bath double wide trailer in Golden Acres trailer park. Has a U shaped driveway in front of the home for easy in / out, plus a gated car port. Tool shed, new windows, carport, ceiling fans, evaporative cooler. Golden Acres park does not have a land lease. The HOA provides garbage service.

Key facts

• Tool shed
• Gated car port
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• U SHAPED DRIVEWAY
• GATED CAR PORT
• TOOL SHED
• NEW WINDOWS
• CEILING FANS
• EVAPORATIVE COOLER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huachuca Mountain Elementary School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D-, #334 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 416 students, 34% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.30%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,021
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -27.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4965 E Ironwood Cir	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,121 (-14%)	0mo	$149,000	$133	76
3781 E Holly Pl	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,457 (+12%)	1mo	$145,000	$100	69
3665 S Inca Dove Pl	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (-4%)	10mo	$164,000	$131	65
4912 S Tumbleweed Pl	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (+11%)	11mo	$179,500	$124	63
5236 E Finch Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-11%)	2mo	$128,000	$111	61
5085 E Clearview Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+6%)	6mo	$200,000	$146	57
3843 S Ironwood Cir	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,459 (+13%)	13mo	$179,900	$123	55
3860 S Mahonia Pl	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,129 (-13%)	16mo	$135,000	$120	52
4978 E Kensington St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,149 (-11%)	10mo	$198,000	$172	46
4833 E Kevin St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-11%)	9mo	$175,000	$152	45
4210 S Santa Lucia Ave S	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	9mo	$230,000	$158	43
5329 E Goldfinch Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (+15%)	13mo	$177,500	$119	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $31,422
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $91,782
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $921

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $851	-5% $819	+0% $786	+5% $754	+10% $721
Rent	-10% $635	-5% $710	+0% $786	+5% $862	+10% $937
Rate	-1.0pp $844	-0.5pp $815	base $786	+0.5pp $756	+1.0pp $726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4413 Redwood St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,700	$1.25	45d	1	0.69mi
4488 Resort Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,700	$1.21	45d	1	0.71mi
3507 Trevino Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,850	$1.01	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: trashsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 362 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 353 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 352 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 349 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 348 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 347 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 346 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 345 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 344 DOM
18. 2025-06-20
    listed $115,000 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 Bath double wide trailer in Golden Acres trailer park. Has a U shaped driveway in front of the home for easy in / out, plus a gated car port. Tool shed, new windows, carport, ceiling fans, evaporative cooler. Golden Acres park does not have a land lease. The HOA provides garbage service.

19. 2016-07-14
    historical
20. 2016-06-06
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 102.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $8,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,928
• After-tax cash flow: $7,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-20 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2016-06-06 Listed $54,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $375 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.