10238 Cala Lily Trl Unit S

Orlando, FL 32832

$240,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$440
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-383/mo
• Annual: $-4,591/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (9.5% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sun Blaze Elementary (math 75% / reading 68%, grade A-, #314 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 1,088 students, 29% FRL); Lake Nona Middle (math 72% / reading 64%, grade A-, #74 of 571 statewide, top 13%, 1,715 students, 31% FRL); Innovation Montessori High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 168 students, 31% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 56% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 528 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?