7241 Orchid Island Pl

Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$589,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,883/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax + insurance: −$924
• HOA: −$246
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,026
• Net cashflow: $-401/mo
• Annual: $-4,809/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $164,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $589k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $518k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $488k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $488k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 51% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $458k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,883/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 574% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.