7241 Orchid Island Pl · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$589,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2004 7,910 sqft lot Est $766k · 23% under $246/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Equipped with a whole-house generator, this charming and spacious 2,260 sq. ft. residence in the gated, maintenance-free enclave of Orchid Island within the Lakewood Ranch Golf & Country Club offers comfort, quality, and serene lakefront surroundings. Thoughtfully designed, the home features an expansive primary suite with a sitting area, two oversized walk-in closets, dual vanities, soaking tub, and walk-in shower, along with a generous guest en suite and a spacious den or office complete with double-door pocket entry and custom built-ins. Interior appointments include wood flooring throughout, crown moldings, and tray ceilings. A generously sized flex space positioned off the main l

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• 7,910 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WHOLE-HOUSE GENERATOR
• GATED MAINTENANCE-FREE ENCLAVE
• LAKEFRONT SURROUNDINGS
• EXPANSIVE PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSETS
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Pets allowed; Community features: golf, pool, sidewalks, golf carts allowed
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount $3,268; Total annual fees $2,958 (total monthly $246.50)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Lakewood Ranch Townhall); Monthly HOA fee of $12.50; Annual association fee $150; Additional monthly maintenance amount $234; Association approval required; Association amenities include pool, maintenance of grounds, security, vehicle restrictions, gated access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Gated community; Community security included with association
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; BB/HS internet available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Residential property in a gated community; Located on a lot of approximately 0.18 acres; Lake view
• Construction: Stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built with living area recorded at 2260 square feet
• Exterior features: Patio (screened); Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Attic ventilator; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $589k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-401 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $518k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $488k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $488k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 51% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 497 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,883/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 574% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $458k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $488,346 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $766,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7249 Orchid Island Pl	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,235 (-1%)	1mo	$613,400	$274	91
13828 Siena Loop	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,311 (+2%)	1mo	$799,000	$346	88
7137 Orchid Island Pl	0.12mi	2/2.0	2,326 (+3%)	2mo	$585,000	$252	88
13844 Siena Loop	0.05mi	2/2.0	2,134 (-6%)	5mo	$619,425	$290	84
13861 Siena Loop	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,134 (-6%)	3mo	$610,000	$286	78
7448 Riviera Cv	0.30mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,436 (+8%)	2mo	$825,000	$339	64
7232 Presidio Gln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,160 (-4%)	0mo	$650,000	$301	60
7753 US Open Loop	0.66mi	2/2.0	2,131 (-6%)	1mo	$765,000	$359	59
14725 Newtonmore Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,109 (-7%)	4mo	$825,000	$391	52
7626 Desert Inn Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,145 (-5%)	3mo	$530,000	$247	50
14519 Leopard Creek Pl	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,556 (+13%)	3mo	$1,150,000	$450	46
7012 Twin Hills Ter	0.58mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,487 (+10%)	3mo	$999,999	$402	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-89,258
• Equity at exit: $136,579

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-122,530
• Equity at exit: $138,701

Cash invested: $164,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34202

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 497
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax from tax record: −$678 /mo · $8,142/yr
• Insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$246
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,026
• Net cashflow: $-401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,391

Max offer price $518,206

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $147,250
• Closing costs: $17,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7236 Orchid Island Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2289	$7,800	$3.41	23d	1	0.02mi
7423 Riviera Cv Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$3,000	$1.52	3d	1	0.39mi
7236 Presidio Gln Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	2153	$3,500	$1.63	23d	1	0.61mi
8044 Gulfstream Ct Bradenton, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1861	$2,711	$1.46	3d	6	0.63mi
14551 Whitemoss Ter Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	2148	$3,700	$1.72	23d	1	0.76mi
8263 Miramar Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$4,000	$2.21	3d	1	0.87mi
8263 Miramar Way Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$4,000	$2.21	23d	1	0.87mi
8261 Miramar Way #202 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,750	$1.52	23d	1	0.87mi
7328 Lake Forest Gln Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$5,000	$2.67	23d	1	0.96mi
8363 Miramar Way Unit 203 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1812	$2,700	$1.49	20d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $246 · $2,952/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $589,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $589,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $599,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $599,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 695-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $599,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,142 · $678/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,142 · $678/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,993
• − Property taxes: −$8,142
• − Insurance: −$2,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,688
• − Management: −$4,688
• − HOA: −$2,952
• − Depreciation: −$17,135
• Taxable loss: −$14,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,586
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,197
• Household income: $121,659
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 240.7087
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+30.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $599,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $599,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $604,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $624,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $457,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,142 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.