5009 Arrow Rdg

Schertz, TX 78124

$265,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,480 sqft · Built 2018 · Land · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,252/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$605
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-270/mo
• Annual: $-3,245/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (15.0% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garden Ridge El (math 61% / reading 60%, grade B-, #385 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 828 students, 22% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Davenport H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 1,199 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 418 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Schertz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.