5009 Arrow Rdg · Schertz, TX 78124

$265,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,480 sqft · Land · 48 Days on market

Built 2018 7,405 sqft lot $107/sqft · 34% below area Est $402k · 34% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this spacious 4bedroom, 2.5bath home offering an impressive blend of comfort, style, and room to grow. The main level features a huge living room that flows effortlessly into a generously sized kitchen complete with abundant cabinet space, a gas range, a large island, and a bright eatin dining area. A separate formal dining room adds flexibility for gatherings, holidays, or a dedicated workspace. The large primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a big walkin closet, a walkin shower, and a doublevanity sink for added convenience. Upstairs, a second oversized living room provides the perfect bonus space for a game room, media room, or play area. All secondary bedrooms are wellsiz

Key facts

• Huge living room
• Large island
• Gas range

Tags

• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• GAS RANGE
• LARGE ISLAND
• BRIGHT EAT-IN DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resource not available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee of $161.05; Association transfer fee of $250; Subdivision: The Parklands

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Pre-wired for security; Smoke alarms
• Utilities: Water system available; Sewer system available; Natural gas for heating and cooking
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family home; Brick and cement fiber exterior; Entry on main level
• Construction: Built approximately 8 years ago; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Privacy fence; Partial sprinkler system; Double-pane windows; Gutters; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with island and breakfast bar; Gas cooking; Stove/range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Custom cabinets
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and full bath; Bedroom 2 — 12 x 11; Bedroom 3 — 11 x 11; Bedroom 4 — 11 x 11; Master bedroom dimensions — 16 x 14
• Flooring: Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Total of 3 bathrooms (2 full, 1 half); Master bath has shower-only and double vanity (11 x 10)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (1 unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Washer and dryer connections; Microwave, stove/range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and disposal included; Owned water softener; Smoke alarms installed; Pre-wired for security; Gas water heater; Custom cabinets; City garbage service; Two living areas with a separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen with island and breakfast bar; Game room and loft; Utility room inside; High ceilings and open floor plan; Cable TV available and high-speed internet; Laundry available on main and lower levels; Walk-in closets; Some window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection and dryer connection; Laundry room / Laundry on main and lower levels; Utility room (8 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in Schertz — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garden Ridge El (math 61% / reading 60%, grade B-, #385 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 828 students, 22% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Davenport H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 1,199 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 418 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,236 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,913
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -34.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-59,994
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-73,734
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 418
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,941/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,594

Max offer price $217,236

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-195	+0% $-270	+5% $-345	+10% $-420
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-359	+0% $-270	+5% $-181	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-203	base $-270	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5012 Arrow Vis Marion, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,000	$0.95	14d	1	0.19mi
4821 Park Gln Marion, TX	4.0	3.0	2245	$2,147	$0.96	45d	1	0.23mi
4809 Park Gln Marion, TX	3.0	2.5	2089	$2,150	$1.03	45d	1	0.24mi
5473 Cypress Pt Unit NA Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.5	2666	$2,575	$0.97	0d	1	0.28mi
5489 Cypress Pt Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.5	2732	$2,550	$0.93	0d	1	0.32mi
5488 Devonwood St Cibolo, TX	4.0	2.5	2756	$2,500	$0.91	0d	1	0.35mi
4178 Garden Path Schertz, TX	3.0	2.5	2244	$2,400	$1.07	0d	1	0.72mi
6661 Bowie Cv Schertz, TX	3.0	3.0	2398	$2,195	$0.92	14d	1	0.79mi
202 Posey Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2673	$2,095	$0.78	3d	1	1.19mi
210 Posey Pass New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1885	$1,749	$0.93	25d	1	1.21mi
5244 Brookline Schertz, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,750	$1.00	25d	1	1.24mi
5125 Columbia Dr Cibolo, TX	4.0	3.0	2606	$2,095	$0.80	25d	1	1.25mi
5248 Columbia Dr Cibolo, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$1,800	$1.03	25d	1	1.30mi
247 Azalea Way New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	2748	$2,995	$1.09	45d	1	1.32mi
276 Chrysanthemum New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1904	$1,826	$0.96	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Price Change 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Price Change 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Price Change 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Price Change 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Price Change 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on market $265,000 Price Change 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $289,000 New 1075-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,941 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,941 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$5,941
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,771
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,865
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Schertz

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #5013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schertz, TX
• City population: 41,907
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $265,000 LERA
• 2026-05-04 Listed $289,000 LERA