19 Willow Dr

Saucier, MS 39561

$139,900C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,584 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $191/mo
• Annual: $2,290/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.85%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (6.8% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $130k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#91 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stone County School District (town): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #15 of 130 in MS (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in Saucier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.