2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
780 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 100 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,750/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$629
Tax + insurance
−$400
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$367
Net cashflow
$353/mo
Annual
$4,233/yr
Cap rate
9.82%
Cash-on-cash
12.60%
DSCR
1.56
1% rule
1.46%
Cash to close
$33,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in NY, #81 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+.
East Syracuse Minoa Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #379 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $75k; list at $120k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.9% in East Syracuse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29