242 Tophet Rd

Bethlehem Village, CT 06783

$799,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$789
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,118
• Net cashflow: $-772/mo
• Annual: $-9,264/yr
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-772 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $663k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $533k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $533k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#107 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shepaug Valley School (math 61% / reading 76%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 494 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.