242 Tophet Rd · Bethlehem Village, CT 06783

$799,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1976 6.07 ac lot $429/sqft · 20% below area Est $1003k · 20% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled within one of Roxbury, Connecticut's most quiet and picturesque enclaves, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath Cape Cod home offers a rare opportunity to cultivate your dream country retreat. Built in the 1970s, this residence presents a wonderful canvas for those seeking to personalize and update a home within a highly sought-after area, celebrated for its exquisite properties and serene landscapes. The idyllic surroundings include a tranquil stream which meanders down through the property, while established mature plantings burst with color and life, providing a private oasis for relaxation and enjoyment. Imagine alfresco dining on the inviting stone terrace, or pursuing your gardening passions in the dedicated garden shed. This home is ready for its next chapter, offering a foundation of classic Cape Cod charm awaiting modern touches. It's an exceptional chance to invest in a lifestyle of peace and natural beauty, surrounded by the distinguished homes that define this desirable corner of rural Connecticut. *Town tax records - 3 bedrooms, health file has 2.

Key facts

• Tranquil stream
• Stone terrace
• Mature plantings

Tags

• TRANQUIL STREAM
• STONE TERRACE
• DEDICATED GARDEN SHED
• MATURE PLANTINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-772 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $663k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $533k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $533k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#107 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shepaug Valley School (math 61% / reading 76%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 494 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($703k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $532,543 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,003,470
• List price: $799,000
• Delta: -20.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-178,897
• Equity at exit: $119,133

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-220,124
• Equity at exit: $69,083

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06783

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,474/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,118
• Net cashflow: $-772

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,303

Max offer price $662,616

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-320	-5% $-546	+0% $-772	+5% $-998	+10% $-1,224
Rent	-10% $-1,193	-5% $-982	+0% $-772	+5% $-562	+10% $-351
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-569	base $-772	+0.5pp $-979	+1.0pp $-1,190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $799,000 Under Contract 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $799,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $799,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $799,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 146 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $799,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 145 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $799,000 Under Contract - Continue to Show 144 DOM
7. 2026-05-16
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show 1078-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1078 chars)

   Nestled within one of Roxbury, Connecticut's most quiet and picturesque enclaves, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath Cape Cod home offers a rare opportunity to cultivate your dream country retreat. Built in the 1970s, this residence presents a wonderful canvas for those seeking to personalize and update a home within a highly sought-after area, celebrated for its exquisite properties and serene landscapes. The idyllic surroundings include a tranquil stream which meanders down through the property, while established mature plantings burst with color and life, providing a private oasis for relaxation and enjoyment. Imagine alfresco dining on the inviting stone terrace, or pursuing your gardening passions in the dedicated garden shed. This home is ready for its next chapter, offering a foundation of classic Cape Cod charm awaiting modern touches. It's an exceptional chance to invest in a lifestyle of peace and natural beauty, surrounded by the distinguished homes that define this desirable corner of rural Connecticut. *Town tax records - 3 bedrooms, health file has 2.

8. 2026-03-30
   price $799,000 1078-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1078 chars)

   Nestled within one of Roxbury, Connecticut's most quiet and picturesque enclaves, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath Cape Cod home offers a rare opportunity to cultivate your dream country retreat. Built in the 1970s, this residence presents a wonderful canvas for those seeking to personalize and update a home within a highly sought-after area, celebrated for its exquisite properties and serene landscapes. The idyllic surroundings include a tranquil stream which meanders down through the property, while established mature plantings burst with color and life, providing a private oasis for relaxation and enjoyment. Imagine alfresco dining on the inviting stone terrace, or pursuing your gardening passions in the dedicated garden shed. This home is ready for its next chapter, offering a foundation of classic Cape Cod charm awaiting modern touches. It's an exceptional chance to invest in a lifestyle of peace and natural beauty, surrounded by the distinguished homes that define this desirable corner of rural Connecticut. *Town tax records - 3 bedrooms, health file has 2.

9. 2026-01-04
   listed $849,000 Active 1078-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1078 chars)

   Nestled within one of Roxbury, Connecticut's most quiet and picturesque enclaves, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath Cape Cod home offers a rare opportunity to cultivate your dream country retreat. Built in the 1970s, this residence presents a wonderful canvas for those seeking to personalize and update a home within a highly sought-after area, celebrated for its exquisite properties and serene landscapes. The idyllic surroundings include a tranquil stream which meanders down through the property, while established mature plantings burst with color and life, providing a private oasis for relaxation and enjoyment. Imagine alfresco dining on the inviting stone terrace, or pursuing your gardening passions in the dedicated garden shed. This home is ready for its next chapter, offering a foundation of classic Cape Cod charm awaiting modern touches. It's an exceptional chance to invest in a lifestyle of peace and natural beauty, surrounded by the distinguished homes that define this desirable corner of rural Connecticut. *Town tax records - 3 bedrooms, health file has 2.

10. 2025-12-25
    historical
11. 2025-11-03
    price $849,000
12. 2025-07-23
    listed $895,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,474 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,286 · $941/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,812/yr (+$484/mo · 106.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$5,474
• − Insurance: −$3,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,112
• − Management: −$5,112
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable loss: −$23,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,709
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 12
• NCES district ID: 0903530
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $86,065
• Composite: 63.18/100
• National rank: #638
• State rank: #20 of 153 in CT

Livability — Bethlehem Village

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #9178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,398
• Population (ZIP): 2,184

Population outlook (Northwest Hills County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 118,998

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 7% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northwest Hills

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 49.9% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.80%
• Current HPI: 170.3789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $799,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $849,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-12-25 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $849,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $895,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,474 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.