2471 Cabin Hill Rd

Cumberland, IN 46229

$273,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,390 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$34
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-701/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $76,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-701/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.0% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#486 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mt Vernon Community School Corporation (rural): math 43% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #70 of 301 in IN (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 36 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,091 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hancock County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?