51 Worrall Ave

Poughkeepsie, NY 12603

$599,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,120 sqft · Built 1921 · MultiFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$1,474
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,250
• Net cashflow: $85/mo
• Annual: $1,023/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 1×3bd/1.0ba + 1×2bd/1.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $28/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $595k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $581k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#165 in NY, #2,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Poughkeepsie City School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #559 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: G W Krieger School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 460 students, 78% FRL); Poughkeepsie Middle School (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #650 of 729 statewide, top 90%, 877 students, 82% FRL); Poughkeepsie High School (math 59% / reading 67%, grade B-, #819 of 1,100 statewide, top 74%, 1,165 students, 74% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $480k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Poughkeepsie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,950/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($104k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.