4759 Bernice Ave

Warren, MI 48091

$214,900F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 956 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,390/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-421/mo
• Annual: $-5,053/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (35.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $139k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Warren Consolidated Schools (urban): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #373 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Siersma Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 426 students, 83% FRL); Beer Middle School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #359 of 493 statewide, top 73%, 745 students, 76% FRL); Warren Mott High School (math 12% / reading 40%, grade F, #474 of 713 statewide, top 66%, 1,385 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $109k; list at $215k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.