949 VT Route 105

Derby Center, VT 05872

$115,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,969 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $108/mo
• Annual: $1,299/yr
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.73%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#107 in VT) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 157 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (107 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orleans County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.