5194 County Road 15200

Deport, TX 75435

$135,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-789/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-789/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,482 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Prairiland ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #167 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.