5194 County Road 15200 · Deport, TX 75435

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1998 2.00 ac lot $117/sqft · 42% below area Est $233k · 42% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming property just waiting on you to put the final touches on. This 4bedroom, 2 bath home located in the highly desirable Prairiland School District offers so much potential. The property sits on 2 acres of land that borders up to a hardwood bottom that holds lots of wildlife like the highly sought after whitetail deer. Enjoy the peace and serenity that the country life has to offer!!!

Key facts

• Whitetail deer
• Country life
• 2 acres of land

Tags

• 2 ACRES OF LAND
• BORDERS HARDWOOD BOTTOM
• HOLDS WILDLIFE
• WHITETAIL DEER
• COUNTRY LIFE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-789/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,482 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Prairiland ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #167 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,529 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,233
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -42.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $57,485
• Equity at exit: $108,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $170,439
• Equity at exit: $222,789

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75435

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,095 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,002/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $123,387

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    listed $135,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Charming property just waiting on you to put the final touches on. This 4bedroom, 2 bath home located in the highly desirable Prairiland School District offers so much potential. The property sits on 2 acres of land that borders up to a hardwood bottom that holds lots of wildlife like the highly sought after whitetail deer. Enjoy the peace and serenity that the country life has to offer!!!

17. 2025-08-04
    historical
18. 2025-05-09
    price $159,000
19. 2025-04-07
    price $164,000
20. 2025-03-03
    price $169,000
21. 2025-02-16
    price $174,900
22. 2025-02-02
    listed $184,900 Active
23. 2021-11-03
    soldstatus
24. 2006-04-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,002 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,002
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$3,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $-39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prairiland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835740
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,652
• Composite: 43.44/100
• National rank: #3010
• State rank: #167 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deport

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1482
• US rank: #25402

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,056

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Current HPI: 208.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $164,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2025-02-02 Listed $184,900 NTREIS
• 2021-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,002 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.