1406 Maple Ave

Newark, NJ 07205-1554

$455,000D+

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,656 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $304/mo
• Annual: $3,651/yr
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $127,400

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $400k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Hillside Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #398 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $455k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $127k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.