1406 Maple Ave · Newark, NJ 07205-1554

$455,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

ONE OF A KIND OPPORTUNITY TO PURCHASE A LARGE HOME IN A GREAT PART OF TOWN READY FOR YOUR CUSTOM FINISHING! HUGE LOT WITH PLENTY OF BACKYARD SPACE. PROPOSED PLANS AVAILABLE FOR REVIEW.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Easements: none
• Financial info: Financial details not specified
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Driveway with one-car width; No garage
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Electric service available; Natural gas service available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Contemporary and Colonial style; Under construction / To be built; Approximately 3500 square feet
• Construction: Property is new construction / under construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Brick and wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details described in remarks
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms and their levels not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Cooling details described in remarks
• Interior features: Walkout basement; Appliances and additional interior features described in remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
• Hillside Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #398 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $127k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $455k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $400,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.87%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $74,198
• Equity at exit: $204,588

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $237,063
• Equity at exit: $315,294

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Newark: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+59

Rent control + strict just-cause.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07205-1554

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$478 /mo · $5,731/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,865

Max offer price $455,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1065 Sayre Rd Union, NJ	5.0	2.5	1764	$4,250	$2.41	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $455,000 Under Contract 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $455,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $455,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $455,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $455,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $455,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $455,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $455,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $455,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $455,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $455,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $455,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-02-11
    listed $455,000 Active
16. 2025-12-16
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-10-23
    listed $480,000 Active
18. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $250,000
19. 2015-12-01
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold
20. 2015-11-30
    soldstatus $75,000
21. 2015-09-17
    historical
22. 2015-07-14
    price $99,000
23. 2015-07-01
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,731 · $478/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,530 · $711/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,799/yr (+$233/mo · 48.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$5,731
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$933
• After-tax cash flow: $4,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillside Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3407290
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $59,926
• Composite: 21.63/100
• National rank: #8291
• State rank: #398 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Newark

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #11138

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+279.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $455,000 GSMLS
• 2025-12-16 Contingent — NJMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $480,000 NJMLS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-01 Sold (MLS) $75,000 GSMLS
• 2015-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-17 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2015-07-14 Price Changed $99,000 GSMLS
• 2015-07-01 Listed $119,900 GSMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,731 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.