2345 Quarter Horse Trl

Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$120,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 6,912 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,552/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$3,712
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-3,208/mo
• Annual: $-38,496/yr
• Cap rate: -25.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -114.57%
• DSCR: -4.10
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-38k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 239% of rent.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $120k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate -25.8% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.