19720 Greenside Ter

Montgomery Village, MD 20886

$465,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,601 sqft · Built 1976 · Townhouse · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax + insurance: −$574
• HOA: −$152
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $-606/mo
• Annual: $-7,272/yr
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.59%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $130,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-606 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (30.4% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($458k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $324k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#318 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whetstone Elementary (math 12% / reading 11%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 715 students, 75% FRL); Montgomery Village Middle (math 3% / reading 25%, grade F, #196 of 225 statewide, top 88%, 773 students, 80% FRL); Watkins Mill High (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #144 of 222 statewide, top 65%, 1,715 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 26% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Montgomery County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.