3309 Emerald Trace Dr

Denton, TX 76226

$609,990F

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,560 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,556/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,199
• Tax + insurance: −$1,017
• HOA: −$52
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $-1,458/mo
• Annual: $-17,500/yr
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.25%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $170,797

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $610k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $399k (34.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (41.7% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($592k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $356k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1110 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $73k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.