Is 3309 Emerald Trace Dr in Denton, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.4% cap rate and $-962/mo modeled cash flow at a $599,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3309 Emerald Trace Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,096/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 36.79

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +8.1/15.0
Schools +6.9/10.0
Cash flow +6.7/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +4.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$599,990

3309 Emerald Trace Dr · Denton, TX 76226

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,560 sqft · Land · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,387 sqft lot 2-car garage $169/sqft · at area comps Est $608k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning Rose II offers 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, a private study, spacious game room, and dedicated media room, all perfectly situated on an interior cul-de-sac lot. The home features wood flooring throughout the main living areas, a deluxe kitchen with upgraded countertops, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling tiled fireplace. The gorgeous stone elevation is enhanced by an upgraded brick-wrapped front porch and an impressive 8' front door. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio, and benefit from energy-efficient features including a tankless water heater. With its thoughtful layout, premium finishes, and prime cul-de-sac location, this Rose II delivers exceptional comfort, style, and craftsmanship. Upgrades continue with 2-inch faux wood blinds throughout and full rain gutters for added durability. Located in Glenwood Meadows in Denton, just minutes from Hwy 377 and I-35 and zoned to award-winning Argyle ISD. Call or visit the Bloomfield Homes model at Glenwood Meadows to experience this Rose II in person.

Key facts

Wood flooring
Upgraded countertops
Dedicated media room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath land listed at $600k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-962 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (23.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (31.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $410k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Argyle ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #8 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Hilltop El (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 636 students, 8% FRL); Argyle Middle (math 73% / reading 63%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 1,168 students, 0% FRL); Argyle H S (math 75% / reading 86%, grade A, #36 of 1,632 statewide, top 2%, 1,477 students, 0% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1339 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $83k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $409,609 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.37%
Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $608,060
List price: $599,990
Delta: -1.33%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3204 Emerald Trace Dr	0.07mi	5/4.0	3,696 (+4%)	0mo	$629,990	$170	90
3300 Emerald Trace Dr	0.03mi	5/4.0	2,849 (-20%)	2mo	$624,990	$219	72
3212 Emerald Trace Dr	0.04mi	5/4.5	4,070 (+14%)	2mo	$719,990	$177	70
3300 Stonecrop Trl	0.20mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,685 (-25%)	1mo	$399,900	$149	56
5204 Middlestone Ln	0.51mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,192 (-10%)	1mo	$557,990	$175	51
2705 Kerry Ct	1.22mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,444 (-3%)	2mo	$850,000	$247	51
2608 Tamarack Ln	0.62mi	5/4.0	3,130 (-12%)	3mo	$559,990	$179	49
5108 Edge Way	0.62mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,192 (-10%)	2mo	$573,990	$180	47
3113 Tamarack Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,003 (-16%)	1mo	$440,000	$147	46
2808 Tamarack Ln	0.54mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,137 (-12%)	3mo	$578,990	$185	45
2620 Tamarack Ln	0.60mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,115 (-12%)	1mo	$569,990	$183	43
3900 Yarrow Dr	1.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,768 (-22%)	2mo	$499,990	$181	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.8%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-164,082
Equity at exit: $89,460

10-year hold

IRR: -38.1%
Equity multiple: -0.45×
Total profit: $-243,982
Equity at exit: $51,876

Cash invested: $167,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 2 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

Home prices YoY: -24.4%
Rents YoY: 1.6%
Active inventory: 1339
Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,096 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
Tax est. 1.5%: −$750 /mo · $9,000/yr
Insurance: −$250
HOA: −$52
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
Net cashflow: $-962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,314

Max offer price $460,717

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-548	-5% $-755	+0% $-962	+5% $-1,170	+10% $-1,377
Rent	-10% $-1,286	-5% $-1,124	+0% $-962	+5% $-801	+10% $-639
Rate	-1.0pp $-660	-0.5pp $-810	base $-962	+0.5pp $-1,118	+1.0pp $-1,276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $149,998
Closing costs: $18,000
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2909 Parkwood Cir Argyle, TX	5.0	3.5	3429	$4,000	$1.17	4d	1	0.22mi
2905 Emerald Trace Dr Argyle, TX	6.0	5.0	4410	$4,900	$1.11	1d	1	0.23mi
3200 Stonecrop Trl Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2595	$2,750	$1.06	35d	1	0.31mi
2721 Donella Dr Denton, TX	5.0	3.0	2497	$3,500	$1.40	0d	1	1.03mi
1120 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$2,370	$0.88	62d	1	1.28mi
1709 Sparrow St Denton, TX	5.0	4.0	2922	$3,300	$1.13	35d	1	1.34mi
3100 Spenrock Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,650	$1.08	16d	1	1.37mi
1513 Woodpecker St Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2733	$3,500	$1.28	36d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Municipal Utility District: No
Financial info: Financing available: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners associationAnnual association feeAssociation covers full use of facilities, maintenance structure, and management feesHOA managed by Vision Communities Management

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces side)Covered parking for 2 vehiclesDriveway and direct garage accessEnclosed carport spaces: 0
Security: Smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors
Utilities: City water and city sewerConcrete curbs
Home design: Single family residence, two storiesNew construction (incomplete)Subdivision: Glenwood MeadowsBuilder-provided lot dimensions approximately 60 x 117
Construction: Brick and rock/stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationYear built: 2026 (new construction)
Exterior features: Covered porch(es)GuttersPrivate, landscaped yard with sprinkler systemFenced backyard with wood fencingLocated on an interior cul-de-sac lot with few trees

Interior

Kitchen: Gas cooktop and gas ovenDishwasherMicrowaveDisposalKitchen islandEat-in kitchen and breakfast roomWater line to refrigeratorPantry and walk-in pantryGranite countertopsVented exhaust fan
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower, ensuite bath, and walk-in closetAdditional bedrooms on main and second levels
Flooring: Wood flooringTileCarpet
Bathrooms: Four full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with double vanity, garden tub and separate shower
Heating & cooling: Central heating and central airNatural gas heatingFireplace(s) with gas logs and gas starterZoned heating and coolingCeiling fans
Interior features: Open floorplan with vaulted ceilingsBuilt-in featuresDecorative lightingDouble vanity in bathsEat-in kitchenGranite countersKitchen islandPantry and walk-in pantryHigh speed internet availableCable TV availableWalk-in closets3 living areas and 1 dining areaRoom count: 12
Laundry & utility: Utility room with washer hookupLaundry with drip/dry areaGas water heater and tankless water heater

HOA detail $52/mo · $624/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $599,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $599,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $599,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $599,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $599,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $599,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $599,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $599,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $599,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $599,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $599,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $599,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $599,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $599,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $599,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $599,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $599,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $599,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $599,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $599,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $599,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $599,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $599,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $599,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $599,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $599,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $599,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $599,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $599,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $599,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $599,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $599,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $599,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-29

price $599,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $609,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $609,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $609,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $609,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $609,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $609,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $609,990 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $609,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $609,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $609,990 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $609,990 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $609,990 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $609,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $609,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $609,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $609,990 Active 37 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $49,153
− Mortgage interest: −$33,609
− Property taxes: −$9,000
− Insurance: −$3,000
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,932
− Management: −$3,932
− HOA: −$624
− Depreciation: −$17,454
Taxable loss: −$22,398

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,376
After-tax cash flow: $-6,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This stunning Bloomfield Homes Rose II is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. The home's curb appeal and interior updates could further enhance its value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof tile · good

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home feel more inviting and modern ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 69/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hilltop El B- TX #409/4,322 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Argyle Middle A- TX #73/1,662 Nat'l #970/14,009 High Argyle H S A TX #36/1,632 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Argyle ISD
NCES district ID: 4808670
Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
Median HH income: $108,516
Composite: 64.16/100
National rank: #568
State rank: #8 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 88/100

Livability — Denton

Score: 88/100
State rank: #2
US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Denton, TX
County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
City population: 127,990
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 43,587
Household income: $180,982
Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
Current HPI: 253.1948
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-05-27 Price Changed $609,990 Zillow
2026-05-26 Price Changed $609,990 NTREIS
2026-05-04 Price Changed $629,990 Zillow
2026-05-04 Price Changed $629,990 NTREIS
2026-05-02 Listed $682,745 Zillow
2026-04-30 Listed $682,745 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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