302 Cr 3832

Hawkins, TX 75765

$295,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,829/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,581/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (38.0% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#196 in TX, #4,982 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hawkins El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 383 students, 64% FRL); Hawkins H S / Middle (math 39% / reading 42%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 386 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.