130 Grand View Ave

San Francisco, CA 94114

$3,800,000D

15 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,861 sqft · Built 1961 · MultiFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,182/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,928
• Tax + insurance: −$3,845
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,868
• Net cashflow: $-5,459/mo
• Annual: $-65,512/yr
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $1,064,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 5-bed/4.5-bath units multifamily listed at $3.80M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-66k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-2k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.84M (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.32M (39.0% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.57M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.32M (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $388k of equity ($26k loan paydown + $361k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.88M; list at $3.80M implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$622k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $23,182/mo this rent would consume 136% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 1336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?