627 Cedar Canyon Rd

Lake Almanor Country Club, CA 96137

$459,000C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,898 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$407
• HOA: −$249
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $295/mo
• Annual: $3,535/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (7.4% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $425k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#895 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $459k implies a 303% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Lake Almanor Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.