627 Cedar Canyon Rd · Lake Almanor Country Club, CA 96137

$459,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,898 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1983 0.73 ac lot $242/sqft · 22% below area Est $588k · 22% under $249/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your perfect mountain escape in the highly sought-after Lake Almanor Country Club! This beautifully maintained 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers the ideal blend of comfort, recreation and natural beauty~all just a short 5 minute walk to public beach access on stunning Lake Almanor. Step inside and immediately feel at home with a cozy fireplace that anchors the inviting living space, perfect for relaxing after a day on the lake or enjoying peaceful mountain evenings. The home features a formal dining room, ideal for hosting gatherings and holiday meals, while the well designed layout offers both functionality and charm throughout. The spacious primary suite includes its own private

Key facts

• 0.73 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a community with lake, park, mountainous terrain, fishing and watersports
• HOA & community: Part of LACC association; Annual association fee; Association amenities include golf, tennis, pickleball, bocce ball, clubhouse, playground, hiking and biking trails, picnic and outdoor cooking/barbecue areas, security and watersports

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry garage with two doors; 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Security: Card/code access; Guarded community; Gated community with attendant; Community security amenity
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry on level 1; No common walls
• Construction: Year built from assessor's data
• Exterior features: Porch (including rear porch); Deck; Patio; Treed lot; Up slope from street; Has lake rights, beach access and lake on/near lot; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Formal dining area; Tile counters
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom; Main floor bedrooms (3 on main level); Additional bedrooms include loft and bonus room
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Bathrooms include bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace heating (fireplace located in family room)
• Interior features: Wet bar; High ceilings (9+ feet); Tile counters; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Two levels; Stairs entry; Main level has 2 bathrooms and 3 bedrooms; Card/code access and guarded gated community with attendant
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Laundry in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Lake Almanor Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#895 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $129k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $459k implies a 303% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $425,000 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $587,977
• List price: $459,000
• Delta: -21.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Cedar Canyon Road Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,851 (-2%)	1mo	$585,865	$317	83
637 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.32mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,885 (-1%)	10mo	$650,000	$345	69
666 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	1,976 (+4%)	13mo	$1,400,000	$709	68
625 Deep Forest Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (+2%)	7mo	$540,000	$278	66
711 Lake Ridge Road Rd	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (+5%)	4mo	$556,000	$278	64
601 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,106 (+11%)	2mo	$782,000	$371	60
620 Clifford Drive Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,917 (+1%)	12mo	$710,000	$370	54
603 Lake Ridge Road Rd	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,160 (+14%)	10mo	$350,000	$162	53
602 Lake Ridge Road Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-14%)	9mo	$545,000	$336	49
540 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-12%)	8mo	$685,000	$411	43
642 W Burnt Cedar Road Rd	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,698 (-10%)	8mo	$566,000	$333	39
544 Ponderosa Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-15%)	10mo	$425,000	$263	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $35,870
• Equity at exit: $165,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $152,243
• Equity at exit: $227,487

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,588/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$249
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,877

Max offer price $459,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Burnt Cedar Rd Westwood, CA	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,250	$2.02	44d	1	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $249 · $2,988/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $459,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $459,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $459,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $459,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $459,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $459,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $459,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $459,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $459,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $459,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $459,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $459,000 Active 1508-char remark
19. 1990-04-10
    soldstatus $114,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,588 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,488 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$900/yr (+$75/mo · 34.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$2,588
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − HOA: −$2,988
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$4,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $4,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Almanor Country Club

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #895
• US rank: #23890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Almanor Country Club, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+302.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $459,000 CRMLS
• 1990-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,588 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.