10566 Twin Rivers Rd Unit F-1

Columbia, MD 21044

$209,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$462
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-81/mo
• Annual: $-968/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-968/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#51 in MD, #1,939 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Howard County Public Schools (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #1 of 24 in MD (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 145 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 881 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (285 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howard County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $209k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?