6553 Monterey Pt #204

Vineyards, FL 34105

$565,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,288 sqft · Built 2010 · Condo · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax + insurance: −$942
• HOA: −$633
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,304
• Net cashflow: $368/mo
• Annual: $4,422/yr
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.79%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $158,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $565k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $565k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($557k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $557k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poinciana Elementary School (math 64% / reading 63%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 507 students, 55% FRL); Gulfview Middle School (math 78% / reading 68%, grade A, #44 of 571 statewide, top 8%, 582 students, 40% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $6,210/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.