6553 Monterey Pt #204 · Vineyards, FL 34105

$565,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,288 sqft · Condo · 17 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition $633/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AMAZING VALUE!! Located in the highly sought-after, gated community of Marbella Lakes in the heart of Naples, this rarely available second floor “Napoli” coach home represents one of the most compelling values in the neighborhood, offering peaceful privacy with no road noise and an abundance of natural light throughout. Perfectly positioned within the community, this spacious and meticulously maintained 3-bedroom plus den, 2.5-bath residence with a private two-car garage truly lives like a single-family home and is available with a negotiable furnishings package for immediate enjoyment. Freshly painted in a crisp, contemporary palette, the kitchen showcases expansive shaker sty

Key facts

• Gated community
• Natural light
• Large pantry

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• NATURAL LIGHT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE PANTRY
• NEWER LG APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• MULTIPLE DINING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $565k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $565k).
• Recommended offer: $557k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poinciana Elementary School (math 64% / reading 63%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 507 students, 55% FRL); Gulfview Middle School (math 78% / reading 68%, grade A, #44 of 571 statewide, top 8%, 582 students, 40% FRL); Naples High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,719 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,210/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($557k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $556,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.79%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-80,756
• Equity at exit: $84,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-89,834
• Equity at exit: $48,851

Cash invested: $158,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$706 /mo · $8,475/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$633
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,304
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,744

Max offer price $565,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $759	-5% $564	+0% $368	+5% $173	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $123	+0% $368	+5% $614	+10% $859
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $512	base $368	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,250
• Closing costs: $16,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6559 Monterey Pt Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2300	$9,000	$3.91	22d	1	0.07mi
6548 Monterey Pt Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$6,000	$2.62	15d	1	0.07mi
6542 Marbella Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2144	$6,250	$2.92	25d	1	0.16mi
6525 Monterey Pt Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$5,250	$2.29	15d	1	0.18mi
12839 Carrington Cir Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2063	$6,500	$3.15	25d	1	0.28mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	22d	1	0.36mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	25d	1	0.36mi
6670 Marbella Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2439	$8,400	$3.44	25d	1	0.47mi
12667 Biscayne Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2600	$8,500	$3.27	25d	1	0.68mi
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	25d	1	0.69mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	15d	1	0.69mi
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	15d	1	0.70mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.72mi
13078 Pembroke Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2024	$6,500	$3.21	25d	1	0.80mi
12885 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2489	$10,000	$4.02	25d	1	0.84mi
12848 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.5	2689	$6,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.88mi
4752 Stratford Ct #1404 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2686	$8,500	$3.16	25d	1	0.89mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	0.89mi
4740 Stratford Ct #1603 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2686	$14,000	$5.21	25d	1	0.90mi
12832 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$5,250	$3.06	15d	1	0.91mi
12902 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$7,500	$3.57	25d	1	0.91mi
5858 Star Grass Ln Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2432	$12,000	$4.93	25d	1	1.22mi
3099 Lancaster Dr Unit 7-701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$10,000	$4.63	25d	1	1.41mi
5065 Kensington High St Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2661	$20,000	$7.52	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $633 · $7,596/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 687-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $565,000 Pending 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,522
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,649
• − Property taxes: −$8,475
• − Insurance: −$2,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,962
• − Management: −$5,962
• − HOA: −$7,596
• − Depreciation: −$16,436
• Taxable loss: −$4,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $5,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated condo is in good condition with no major repairs needed. Painting the exterior will further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding and trim — Painting the exterior will improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding and trim — Painting the exterior will improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $565,000 NAPLESMLS