3312 Lauri Rd

Milford Mill, MD 21244

$295,000C+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,766 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Pending · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$488
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $529/mo
• Annual: $6,353/yr
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#99 in MD, #3,838 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winfield Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #538 of 860 statewide, top 64%, 420 students, 67% FRL); Windsor Mill Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 626 students, 55% FRL); Randallstown High (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #174 of 222 statewide, top 78%, 1,159 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.2% in Milford Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,246/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 1434% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.