3312 Lauri Rd · Milford Mill, MD 21244

$295,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1962 8,378 sqft lot Est $440k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AGENTS MUST ACCOMPANY BUYERS! Well located 5 bedroom / 3 full bath brick rancher with front porch and carport in Stevenswood! The main level features a spacious living room / dining room combo, kitchen with breakfast area, primary bedroom with private bath, two bedrooms and a full hall bath. Huge rec room, two additional bedrooms, full bath and laundry / storage room with shelving on the finished lower level. Flat rear yard with patio and storage shed. Great location just minutes from the shops and restaurants on Liberty Rd with easy access to Towson and Baltimore. Buyer to pay a short sale negotiation fee of $6,000 or 2% of the purchase price, whichever is greater, upon closing. AGENTS MUS

Key facts

• Flat rear yard
• Front porch
• Carport

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• FLAT REAR YARD
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.2% in Milford Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#99 in MD, #3,838 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winfield Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #538 of 860 statewide, top 64%, 420 students, 67% FRL); Windsor Mill Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 626 students, 55% FRL); Randallstown High (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #174 of 222 statewide, top 78%, 1,159 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,246/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($85k/yr) (locally 1434% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.69%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $439,794
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8422 Merryview Dr	0.26mi	5/3.5	3,008 (+9%)	6mo	$515,000	$171	66
3308 Janvale Rd	0.26mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,848 (+3%)	21mo	$422,000	$148	60
8510 Greens Ln	0.44mi	5/3.0	2,930 (+6%)	15mo	$451,330	$154	57
8002 Parks Ln	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (-2%)	15mo	$499,999	$185	54
8107 Carlson Ln	0.48mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,652 (-4%)	14mo	$381,000	$144	52
3218 Southgreen	0.43mi	5/3.0	2,560 (-7%)	22mo	$419,000	$164	49
9 Greens Landing Ct	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,488 (-10%)	1mo	$610,000	$245	49
2902 Mayfield Ave	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,644 (-4%)	18mo	$402,500	$152	40
8504 Church Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,494 (-10%)	24mo	$360,000	$144	24
7726 Big Buck Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,359 (-15%)	19mo	$375,000	$159	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-11,202
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $45,688
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21244

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,384/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,576

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $696	-5% $613	+0% $529	+5% $446	+10% $362
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $401	+0% $529	+5% $658	+10% $786
Rate	-1.0pp $678	-0.5pp $604	base $529	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3616 Clifmar Rd Windsor Mill, MD	4.0	2.5	2049	$3,000	$1.46	45d	1	0.47mi
3630 Hilmar Rd Windsor Mill, MD	4.0	2.5	3340	$3,799	$1.14	23d	1	0.58mi
3220 N Rolling Rd Windsor Mill, MD	4.0	3.0	2052	$4,000	$1.95	45d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-30
   price $295,000
2. 2026-01-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-06
   price $369,900
4. 2025-10-16
   listed $375,000 Active
5. 2025-03-25
   listed $375,000
6. 2025-03-25
   historical
7. 2025-03-24
   historical
8. 2025-03-24
   listed $375,000 Active
9. 2025-02-27
   historical
10. 2022-10-19
    soldstatus $310,000
11. 2022-09-23
    soldstatus $310,000 Closed
12. 2022-08-16
    status Pending
13. 2022-08-10
    listed $275,000 Active
14. 2022-08-09
    historical $275,000
15. 2019-07-16
    soldstatus $247,812
16. 1981-06-25
    soldstatus $78,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,384 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,384 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,384
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,117
• − Management: −$3,117
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $1,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$422
• After-tax cash flow: $5,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Milford Mill

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3838

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milford Mill, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 39,545
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 38,208
• Household income: $85,114
• Rent vs Own: 51.0% rent · 49.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 70% Hispanic / Latino 12% White 9% Asian 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.97%
• Current HPI: 258.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+275.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $295,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $369,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-27 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-23 Sold (MLS) $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-10 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-09 Coming Soon $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $247,812 Public Records
• 1981-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,384 · -26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.