13400 Foxtail Unit GCC 103

Black Butte Ranch, OR 97759

$160,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$171
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $459/mo
• Annual: $5,508/yr
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.29%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#310 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sisters SD 6 (rural): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #12 of 58 in OR (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 284 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance