13400 Foxtail Unit GCC 103 · Black Butte Ranch, OR 97759

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · SingleFamily · 236 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $147/sqft · 73% below area $171/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

20% share for an end unit in the Golf Course Condo section of BBR! The condo's kitchen is open to the eating area and great room with views of the Big Meadow golf course as well as Black Butte. The new owners will enjoy the convenience of a main level bedroom and laundry. Upstairs features two sleeping areas as well as another full bathroom for all your guests and family members. This listing won't last long, book your showing today!

Key facts

• Main level bedroom
• Two sleeping areas
• End unit

Tags

• END UNIT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• MAIN LEVEL BEDROOM
• VIEWS OF GOLF COURSE
• TWO SLEEPING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#310 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sisters SD 6 (rural): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #12 of 58 in OR (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 284 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.29%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $596,643
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -73.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13400 Foxtail Unit 102	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,086 (0%)	23mo	$185,000	$170	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,443
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $41,200
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97759

• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $171 · $2,052/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-01-30
    status Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    20% share for an end unit in the Golf Course Condo section of BBR! The condo's kitchen is open to the eating area and great room with views of the Big Meadow golf course as well as Black Butte. The new owners will enjoy the convenience of a main level bedroom and laundry. Upstairs features two sleeping areas as well as another full bathroom for all your guests and family members. This listing won't last long, book your showing today!

17. 2025-10-30
    historical 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    20% share for an end unit in the Golf Course Condo section of BBR! The condo's kitchen is open to the eating area and great room with views of the Big Meadow golf course as well as Black Butte. The new owners will enjoy the convenience of a main level bedroom and laundry. Upstairs features two sleeping areas as well as another full bathroom for all your guests and family members. This listing won't last long, book your showing today!

18. 2025-07-25
    listed $160,000 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    20% share for an end unit in the Golf Course Condo section of BBR! The condo's kitchen is open to the eating area and great room with views of the Big Meadow golf course as well as Black Butte. The new owners will enjoy the convenience of a main level bedroom and laundry. Upstairs features two sleeping areas as well as another full bathroom for all your guests and family members. This listing won't last long, book your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $3,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$787
• After-tax cash flow: $4,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This end-unit condo in the Golf Course Condo section of Black Butte Ranch is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace worn bathroom fixtures — New fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn bathroom fixtures — New fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sisters SD 6
• NCES district ID: 4111490
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,429
• Composite: 40.71/100
• National rank: #3666
• State rank: #12 of 58 in OR

Livability — Black Butte Ranch

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #21063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Butte Ranch, OR
• County: Deschutes County · 197,892 people
• Metro: Bend, OR
• Population (ZIP): 7,737
• Household income: $102,734
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 112.0

Population outlook (Deschutes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,908 people
• By 2030: 232,387 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 265,858 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 295,286 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 353,553 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 380,293 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Deschutes

• 2024 margin: D (+10.1) · D 53.6% · R 43.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: 10.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.1 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+3.8 2012: R+7.3 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.21%
• Current HPI: 371.9129
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bend, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-07-25 Listed $160,000 MLSCO