82520 Vinemaple Rd

Seaside, OR 97138

$279,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$721
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-639/mo
• Annual: $-7,665/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (40.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (29.9% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $167k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in OR, #2,085 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
• Jewell SD 8 (rural): math 20% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #158 of 183 in OR (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 98 units permitted in Clatsop County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $280k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.5% in Seaside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.