82520 Vinemaple Rd · Seaside, OR 97138

$279,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1992 1.00 ac lot Est $457k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Skillfully maintained single level,huge deck overlooks sloping green lawns, cheerful brook. Honor your RVs, hobbies, dreams inside 54x40 pole barn, concrete floor,bathrm, 4+ indoor parking. 2 carports! Irrigated garden space. Quiet street, good schools, near hiking, lakes. 35 mins ocean beaches, crabs, clams. Bakers General Store (gas), Elderberry Inn, Camp 18, Oneys nearby.

Key facts

• 1 acre property
• Mature landscaping
• Open lawn areas

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• VINE MAPLE ACRES COMMUNITY
• LEVEL-TO-GENTLY SLOPING PARCEL
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• OPEN LAWN AREAS
• LARGE SHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RA-1; Lot approximately 1 acre (approx. 200 x 239); Waterfront: creek (Cow Creek)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking with RV access/parking; Three total parking spaces; Detached oversized carport (3-car)
• Security: Security lights
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence (residential); View of creek and woods; Property listed in fixer condition; Main living area on one level
• Construction: Built in 1992; Composition and metal roof; Block foundation with skirting
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Garden and greenhouse; Workshop; Security lights; Sprinkler system; Yard; Creek on the property (Cow Creek); Level lot with trees; Paved road access; T-111 siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with vaulted ceiling and attached bathroom; Second bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Third bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: One-level living with walk-in shower; Soaking tub; Laundry area; Washer and dryer included; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Main-level utility room; Washer/Dryer included; Hot water provided by electricity

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (40.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.5% in Seaside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in OR, #2,085 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
• Jewell SD 8 (rural): math 20% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #158 of 183 in OR (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 98 units permitted in Clatsop County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $147k; list at $280k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,069 (40.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $456,750
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
82403 Vinemaple Rd	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,428 (-2%)	22mo	$450,000	$315	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $111,947
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $362,026
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97138

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,728/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $167,069

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $279,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,728 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,715 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$987/yr (+$82/mo · 57.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,728
• − Insurance: −$6,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$12,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jewell SD 8
• NCES district ID: 4106750
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,626
• Composite: 28.3/100
• National rank: #12151
• State rank: #158 of 183 in OR

Livability — Seaside

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2085

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clatsop County · 29,028 people
• Metro: Astoria, OR
• Population (ZIP): 11,035
• Household income: $60,411
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 573.0

Population outlook (Clatsop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,212 people
• By 2030: 39,765 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 40,121 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 40,032 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 39,123 · -0.2%
• By 2100: 35,965 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clatsop

• 2024 margin: D (+11.4) · D 54.1% · R 42.8% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.4 2020: D+11.3 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+14.6 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.11%
• Current HPI: 1014.65
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Astoria, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+79.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $279,900 RMLS
• 2014-12-22 Sold (MLS) $147,000 RMLS
• 2014-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $146,500 Public Records
• 2013-05-10 Listed $157,500 RMLS
• 2003-03-24 Sold (MLS) $155,900 RMLS
• 2002-04-15 Listed $155,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,728 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.