15290 N Coronado Forest Dr

Catalina, AZ 85739

$225,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $423/mo
• Annual: $5,079/yr
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#200 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coronado K-8 School (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #456 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 665 students, 43% FRL); Ironwood Ridge High School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #80 of 381 statewide, top 21%, 1,556 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $225k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.3% in Catalina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.